Sportsing

Keymaster

So, @jono, I’ve been thinking lately about legacy stats. Things like RBIs. ABs (as opposed to plate appearances), Quarterback rating, Pitcher Wins, etc.

Might start a look into which ones have lasted longer and which stats were more easily discarded at various points along the way (and why).

Participant

@pzed Pitcher Wins is the FIRST that needs to go! That is the stupidest stat I can think of, Quality Starts is way more important.

Also I’m tired of players being hyped up on their HR stats when they play in hitter friendly parks by the media. Personally I’d like to see some kind of overlay where a team could look at a players HR’s and adjust it. So you take CarGo, look at all his HR’s and adjust for say AT&T, the problem is you would need something to adjust for carry, not just depth.

I think there’s a book in there… “Sports Stats and Why they Are Not All That Relevant”.. you could also talk about the effect of clubhouse chemistry and playing in front of 40,000 fans instead of 1,000 fans. Some players just turn it on when they get to the show and others shrink and have to get used to it. Other players loved being the heel, so when they had opposing fans cutting on them they excelled.

It would be really interesting to take into account all these different effects into stats.

Clutch hitting is another… You might be hitting .340 with runners in scoring position, but how do you hit with two out, a runner in scoring position when you’re down a run? Or down two runs? You can see some players just go up there looking for a hero home run (and they will admit it) when all you need to do is get a rally going.

One final one… How does hitting 8th, in front of a pitcher affect a players stats? You know with a runner on they need to expand the zone, you know the pitcher doesn’t care if he walks him. I have no idea how to quantify this at all, this would be a really interesting thing to explore. Because a guy hitting .250 in front of a pitcher is actually doing a better job than someone who is hitting .250 in front of the #3 hitter.

Keymaster

Pitcher wins still has this weird caché that continues to mystify me.

I like the idea of looking at a player’s 8th-place hitting stats. You could probably get a large enough sample size to do a comparison for the same guy hitting in front of the pitcher and not (or league-wide hitting in front of the pitcher) to create a standard adjustment (say give the guy an adjusted obp .015 higher or something, pulling a number out of my butt).

For home runs, Hit Tracker online will cost you at least an hour, if not more. Like, every day. It was bought by ESPN and I think “true distance” is adjusting for carry, then they lay that over the fences of every park. WOULD IT HAVE GONE OUT IN THE POLO GROUNDS @jono?????

Participant

I’m gonna check that site out. I noticed that Crawford leads the NL in triples, but you gotta think that half of the “AT&T triples” would be HR’s.

Speaking of stats, been looking at Batting Average for Balls in Play and Joe Panik has .245 compared to last year which was .330! He must be pulling his hair out. Not really sure why, like if the teams have scouted him better or he’s just unlucky. Probably both but for a contact guy like him, it’s gotta suck. But never really quite understood whether this is a stat I should pay attention to because you could attribute it to luck, but you could attribute it to a player being predictable as to where they hit the ball.

Keymaster

Talking about BABIP is one of the fastest ways to start Sabermetrician flame wars.

It’s pretty clear that it’s, in general, a measure of luck….but that some types of hitters have consistently higher BABIPs (mostly, line drive hitters, which seems logical).

The only way to really tell how much is luck v skill is to compare a hitter’s BABIP to his own career average, which only works for vets, obviously. You could try to fudge your way through similarity scores for a guy like Panik, but that can sometimes be a big reach.

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